What my guts tells me about future of media?

-Akshay Ranganath

There was a wonderful article on how where the Media as a space is headed. This is an article by a VC about how he sees his kids use the new media and what he can derive from their usage.

In short, he feels:

1. DVDs will be big mainly for the TV shows - it delivers more bang for bucks than movies.
2. Movies are cool in theatres - still
3. Books are still read - the old way. Reading online is still not a comfortable idea. Surprisingly magazines are a huge hit and they should be growing more..
4. Radio and Newspapers are not so important anymore. Sure people use them a bit - but, they are not the primary source for entertainment and news respectively.
5. Social Networking is big, games on all kinds of devices are big and teens have no problems to seamless switch between devices.

The tile of my post is a paraphrase of the article.From the Indian experience, here's what I feel will be happening in India:

1. DVDs are now getting big - mainly due to Laptops, DVD players and most importantly, Moser Baer's chape DVDs. Considering tickets in Bangalore now cost anywhere from Rs 200 to Rs 500, its a big burden on the family. Maybe it's affoardable for a Double Income No Kids (DINK) family, but, for others its a no-brainer decision to go for DVD. Considering that we are now getting DVDs of latest movies (I got "Jab We Met" DVD just 2-3 months after the release) it is going to be a big business for movie makers.
2. Books are still read - if in doubt just check the pirated books available on the foot paths!
3. Games are in and so is FM radio. Yes - we are a bit late in catching up with the personal entertainment field - but, lately, Mobile devices have turned into personal music systems. Just see the people plugged into music in any of the BMTC buses.. iPod though is still rare. Unless you are a Cognizant employee, you'll probably not be sporting one
4. Adoption of email and internet is growing - but driven by different factors as compared to West. From the way my parents use internet for surfing matrimony sites and contacting prospects, I beilive the older generation is adopting technology more for fulfilling the traditional filial responsibilities rather than for simply staying in touch. Similarly, they are still not too comfortable with FM radio - preferring the "K" soaps on Telly, Breaking News on NDTV, et. al and newspaper for all opinions. Considering the profliage of news channels and coupled with never ending analysis, they are simply digging their own grave by driving away people who want to get a general feel of happenings - fast.
5. Orkut is the best Social Media site. Facebook is a fab. LinkedIn is gaining ground. Recruiters are now targeting prospects via Orkut. This could act as a big turn off if the trend continues.
6. Mobile phone usage which was a big fab is now turning into more of a utility - and hence, the Average Revnue Per Subscriber (ARPU) could reduce. So, Mobile phone companies will push features like collaboration gaming, song downloads, etc more.

Well, these are my thoughts at the beginning of the new year. Do let me hear your thoughts.

Reference:
What My Kids Tell Me About The Future of Media - http://avc.blogs.com/a_vc/2008/01/what-my-kids-te.html